Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  18.4  19.4  31.5  31.1  39.7  39.5  45.9  N  F  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  26.0  23.0  22.0  33.0  38.0  29.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 124.3 115.1 110.7 125.0 119.6 100.5  66.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  73.0  93.0  45.0  80.0  31.0  26.0  64.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  69.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  12.0   7.0  23.0  18.0 VU  N  N  N  U  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.5%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       15.0%       10.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        6.3%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        5.8%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        5.8%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%       11.0%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        4.0%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 WP052022 220701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  18.4  19.4  31.5  31.1  39.7  39.5  45.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  69.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  12.0   7.0  23.0  18.0 VF  N  N  N  F  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%