Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220702 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  33.5  33.6  27.7  32.2  34.3  39.2  38.8  F  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  22.0  24.0  37.0  46.0  37.0  18.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.1 103.6 110.1 119.3 117.0 112.3  86.2  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  42.0  19.0  21.0  19.0  43.0 -10.0  18.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  72.0  71.0  65.0  63.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   8.0  15.0  15.0  20.0  40.0  46.0  40.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.8%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       11.9%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.9%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        4.7%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.7%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%        9.8%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        3.1%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.12

 WP052022 220702 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  33.5  33.6  27.7  32.2  34.3  39.2  38.8  U  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  72.0  71.0  65.0  63.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   8.0  15.0  15.0  20.0  40.0  46.0  40.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%