Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220702 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    129.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  30.8  25.4  29.7  29.9  25.7  27.0  28.3  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  23.0  36.0  43.0  19.0  18.0  23.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7 117.0 120.0 114.6  88.0  81.0  81.0  60.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  14.0  29.0  42.0  45.0  20.0  36.0  47.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  71.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -9.0  -5.0   5.0   7.0  10.0   6.0  10.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        7.9%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        3.2%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.0%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        3.9%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 WP052022 220702 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    129.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  30.8  25.4  29.7  29.9  25.7  27.0  28.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  71.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -9.0  -5.0   5.0   7.0  10.0   6.0  10.0  N  U  U  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%