Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220702 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  28.6  32.9  43.4  30.4  39.5  37.7  50.6  U  N  U VU  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  25.0  11.0   4.0  20.0  17.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 122.0 108.6  89.4  79.6  65.4  45.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  43.0  35.0  33.0  35.0  22.0  14.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   9.0   6.0  12.0  13.0  13.0  32.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 WP052022 220702 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  28.6  32.9  43.4  30.4  39.5  37.7  50.6  F  N  F VF  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   9.0   6.0  12.0  13.0  13.0  32.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%