Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052022 220703 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.20 126.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.20 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.6 32.1 26.5 23.1 31.4 29.1 37.7 37.5 U U N N U N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 20.0 14.0 6.0 20.0 7.0 10.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 116.5 106.6 101.2 94.3 92.7 89.6 89.6 80.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 -2.0 10.0 22.0 12.0 25.0 25.0 35.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 63.0 65.0 65.0 66.0 67.0 75.0 76.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 9.0 14.0 7.0 11.0 N N N N U U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.18 WP052022 220703 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.20 126.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.