Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220704 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.9  32.8  37.2  41.7  37.3  35.4  29.4  33.9  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.0  97.7  79.2  76.7  90.0  96.1  97.7  97.7  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  27.0  44.0  -4.0  23.0  -5.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  68.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   1.0  21.0  19.0  22.0  19.0  12.0   1.0  U  N VU VU VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.84

 WP052022 220704 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.