Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.80    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  35.1  39.8  41.5  42.7  39.0  37.3  29.2  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.4  75.5  79.2  83.0  77.9  93.0  85.8  85.8  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  17.0 -23.0  27.0  31.0 -15.0  27.0  10.0  U  U VU  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   7.0  15.0  20.0  13.0   9.0   0.0   2.0  F  N  U VU  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.26

 WP052022 220704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.80    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.