Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220705 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.20    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  38.6  38.6  35.4  35.2  33.4  34.2  35.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.7  80.4  85.8  97.7  90.0  91.5  84.4  91.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0 -51.0  24.0  43.0   9.0  42.0  29.0  51.0  U VU  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  13.0  11.0  19.0   8.0   9.0  10.0   2.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.38

 WP052022 220705 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.20    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.