Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220705 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.70    136.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    153.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  35.3  35.9  31.5  30.1  27.9  20.5  23.8  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.6  79.2  81.7  85.8  87.2  87.2  87.2  81.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  16.0   4.0 -13.0  29.0   0.0  51.0  21.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  53.0  49.0  43.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  17.0  10.0   9.0   3.0   1.0   4.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.36

 WP052022 220705 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.70    136.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.