Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220706 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80    144.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  34.7  36.2  32.8  23.6  17.8  16.1  12.3  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.4  67.9  66.7  66.7  70.4  71.7  57.7  42.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  24.0  20.0   0.0  11.0   3.0 -20.0  12.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  54.0  53.0  47.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.98

 WP052022 220706 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80    144.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.