Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052022 220707 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 145.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.40 F TC SIZE [%] 150.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.6 35.7 33.9 28.9 19.3 15.5 11.7 10.0 U U U N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 67.9 66.7 69.2 70.4 73.0 65.5 46.6 33.4 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 21.0 -37.0 26.0 18.0 3.0 5.0 40.0 U U VU U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 60.0 58.0 55.0 49.0 54.0 55.0 56.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 16.0 18.0 N N N N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.96 WP052022 220707 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 145.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.