Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052022 220707 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.10 145.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.30 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.8 32.3 29.6 25.6 11.0 9.1 11.6 13.5 U U N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.2 69.2 70.4 69.2 69.2 54.7 41.2 23.5 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 -39.0 41.0 52.0 3.0 22.0 12.0 8.0 U VU N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 59.0 56.0 55.0 57.0 66.0 70.0 69.0 N U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 10.0 36.0 N N N N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.02 WP052022 220707 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.10 145.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.