Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052022 220707 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.20 146.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.5 30.1 23.5 13.0 7.9 11.2 13.4 14.7 U N N F VF F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 77.9 79.2 80.4 79.2 75.5 59.1 51.9 31.6 N N N N U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -41.0 26.0 25.0 2.0 11.0 12.0 31.0 -18.0 VU U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 58.0 58.0 57.0 64.0 71.0 72.0 64.0 N U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 10.0 20.0 N N N N N U U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.94 WP052022 220707 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.20 146.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.