Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052022 220707 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.70 145.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 18.7 17.9 10.3 11.5 14.7 14.5 17.2 N N F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 62.0 63.2 63.2 62.0 50.9 40.4 22.3 22.3 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 36.0 71.0 30.0 3.0 25.0 5.0 40.0 35.0 N N N U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 56.0 57.0 60.0 66.0 68.0 61.0 65.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 14.0 13.0 16.0 21.0 U N N N U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.40 WP052022 220707 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.70 145.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.