Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052022 220708 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 144.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.70 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 13.5 9.1 8.7 13.1 11.1 19.5 15.9 N F F F F F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 63.2 63.2 60.9 57.7 44.2 34.6 18.4 26.8 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 38.0 26.0 41.0 19.0 39.0 -10.0 87.0 N N U N U N U F Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 60.0 63.0 66.0 64.0 58.0 60.0 U U N N N N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 2.0 8.0 9.0 14.0 14.0 31.0 19.0 N N U U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.36 WP052022 220708 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 144.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.