Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220708 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.60    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  10.1  11.8  10.1  11.5  17.1  16.4  17.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.0  63.8  54.1  45.4  33.2  23.2  21.8  23.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0 -10.0  32.0  59.0   6.0  41.0  25.0  29.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  58.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   7.0   6.0   3.0   0.0  27.0  22.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.62

 WP052022 220708 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.60    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.