Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052022 220708 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.20 144.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.5 12.2 10.6 12.9 11.4 14.7 22.2 31.7 F F F F F F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 65.9 55.9 45.4 42.7 26.3 21.5 26.3 24.3 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -12.0 53.0 25.0 21.0 -9.0 48.0 37.0 U U N U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 64.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 59.0 65.0 69.0 N N N N N U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 19.0 24.0 27.0 29.0 N N N N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.14 WP052022 220708 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.20 144.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.