Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220708 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80    144.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  12.1  15.1  16.8  13.4  14.9  22.7  29.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.7  50.8  44.1  39.6  25.9  25.3  29.7  25.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  61.0  27.0 -16.0  31.0   9.0  19.0  50.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  61.0  61.0  65.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -7.0  -4.0   4.0   7.0  14.0  11.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.68

 WP052022 220708 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80    144.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.