Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052022 220709 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.90    144.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  11.9  12.7  12.1  11.7  12.6  27.1  36.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.8  43.4  39.0  29.2  24.6  25.3  23.4  18.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  60.0 -12.0  23.0  10.0  50.0  37.0  18.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  65.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   5.0   1.0   8.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.64

 WP052022 220709 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.90    144.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.