Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052022 220709 12UTC Storm Located at : 38.80 144.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.50 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.8 12.6 16.3 16.5 9.9 22.1 33.6 30.5 F F F F F N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.1 27.7 24.3 21.8 20.1 19.2 20.6 18.1 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 16.0 13.0 0.0 64.0 32.0 27.0 -19.0 U U U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 59.0 59.0 61.0 58.0 56.0 52.0 N N U U N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 10.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 6.0 0.0 N U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 18.86 WP052022 220709 12UTC Storm Located at : 38.80 144.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.