Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062022 220730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.30    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  29.9  27.9  29.9  36.0  30.6  36.6  36.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  30.0  24.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 132.0 114.4 101.2  83.6  75.4  75.4  70.5  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0   9.0  28.0  78.0  93.0  10.0  30.0  60.0  N  U  U  N  F  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  62.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0   4.0   2.0  -7.0   1.0   5.0  16.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.2%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 WP062022 220730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.30    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  29.9  27.9  29.9  36.0  30.6  36.6  36.2  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  62.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0   4.0   2.0  -7.0   1.0   5.0  16.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%