Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062022 220730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.80    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  24.6  28.4  36.9  30.1  34.7  30.7  35.3  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  20.0  17.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 108.5 101.2  96.0  83.6  76.7  78.0  68.2  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  55.0  60.0  88.0 -21.0 -43.0  40.0  64.0  N  N  N  F VU VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  59.0  55.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0  -5.0   0.0  -2.0  13.0  12.0  20.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 WP062022 220730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.80    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  24.6  28.4  36.9  30.1  34.7  30.7  35.3  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  59.0  55.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0  -5.0   0.0  -2.0  13.0  12.0  20.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%