Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062022 220731 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.60 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.9 33.7 26.1 24.2 30.5 31.0 42.6 39.3 U U N N N U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 11.0 9.0 14.0 14.0 21.0 26.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.4 96.0 96.0 94.3 92.7 97.7 104.8 82.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 104.0 38.0 18.0 -8.0 11.0 46.0 7.0 23.0 F N U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 62.0 59.0 58.0 51.0 48.0 46.0 47.0 N N U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 1.0 10.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 12.0 12.0 N N U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.62 WP062022 220731 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.60 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.