Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062022 220731 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 123.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.6 25.9 29.7 30.5 31.0 38.8 31.4 31.4 N N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 14.0 18.0 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 102.7 102.7 102.7 106.2 85.8 72.0 77.9 77.9 N N N N N U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 14.0 -2.0 -33.0 -4.0 -21.0 8.0 8.0 U U U VU U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 53.0 51.0 46.0 43.0 45.0 45.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 12.0 17.0 22.0 17.0 9.0 9.0 N N U U VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.66 WP062022 220731 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 123.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.