Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062022 220801 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.20 123.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.70 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 21.8 27.0 32.7 35.9 44.5 31.5 24.5 N N N U U VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 19.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 23.0 35.0 41.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 106.1 107.7 114.4 111.0 94.4 109.3 140.1 150.0 N N N N N N F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 -7.0 12.0 1.0 54.0 4.0 0.0 -36.0 U U U U N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 47.0 44.0 44.0 46.0 45.0 53.0 57.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 9.0 20.0 7.0 -5.0 N N N N U VU N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.38 WP062022 220801 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.20 123.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.