Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072022 220801 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.60 126.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.1 23.1 29.3 34.9 35.9 45.9 31.5 26.8 N N N U U VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 25.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 21.0 37.0 50.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 101.1 109.4 106.0 85.4 95.0 101.1 128.6 145.0 N N N N N N F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 -8.0 11.0 1.0 55.0 4.0 0.0 -37.0 U U U U N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 46.0 45.0 44.0 47.0 45.0 53.0 56.0 U VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 19.0 8.0 -6.0 N N U U U VU U F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.08 WP072022 220801 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.60 126.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.