Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082022 220804 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  34.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%       15.5%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        6.1%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        5.5%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.5%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       22.0%       11.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        9.0%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        5.8%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%       13.1%        6.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP082022 220804 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%