Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082022 220804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  32.5  26.9  25.9  37.7  34.0  34.0  34.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.6  98.0 102.7 101.1  92.2  98.0  98.0  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  25.0  46.0  47.0  11.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  82.0  80.0  82.0  86.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   5.0   0.0  -5.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.18

 WP082022 220804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.