Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092022 220811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  33.1  26.9  20.4  20.6  31.3  31.3  31.3  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  45.0  44.0  43.0  42.0  37.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  16.0  23.0  19.0  48.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  51.0  57.0  57.0  57.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.4%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       14.5%        9.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        5.1%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        4.7%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.7%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%       25.5%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.7%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        8.5%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        6.0%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.6%        9.7%        9.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP092022 220811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  33.1  26.9  20.4  20.6  31.3  31.3  31.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  51.0  57.0  57.0  57.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%