Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092022 220812 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.40 136.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.1 23.4 24.2 23.3 36.6 52.1 57.1 60.9 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 43.0 42.0 41.0 38.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 91.0 53.7 13.8 9.1 F F F F N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -14.0 -27.0 0.0 38.0 85.0 148.0 105.0 68.0 U VU U N F VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 54.0 58.0 65.0 67.0 64.0 63.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 14.0 23.0 25.0 39.0 17.0 5.0 N N U VU VU VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 6.6% 3.7% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 2.2% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.9% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.2% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.34 WP092022 220812 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.40 136.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.1 23.4 24.2 23.3 36.6 52.1 57.1 60.9 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 54.0 58.0 65.0 67.0 64.0 63.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 14.0 23.0 25.0 39.0 17.0 5.0 N N F VF VF VF F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%