Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092022 220813 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.70 137.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 33.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.30 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.8 35.0 42.1 49.4 49.5 46.0 46.8 44.7 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.5 81.5 66.7 67.9 35.2 10.5 7.6 10.1 N N U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 42.0 80.0 92.0 82.0 55.0 15.0 55.0 N N N F N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 54.0 52.0 53.0 53.0 50.0 49.0 55.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 5.0 25.0 7.0 9.0 -3.0 -21.0 -42.0 VF N VU N U N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.04 WP092022 220813 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.70 137.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.