Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092022 220813 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.70 138.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 148.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.1 44.1 52.0 57.1 60.5 64.0 62.6 51.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 80.8 61.7 57.8 40.2 14.1 14.6 15.9 14.6 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 71.0 78.0 103.0 102.0 -12.0 94.0 66.0 109.0 N N F F U F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 57.0 56.0 61.0 59.0 60.0 64.0 U U U U N U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 17.0 -8.0 -28.0 -55.0 -84.0-170.0-210.0 U U F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.92 WP092022 220813 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.70 138.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.