Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092022 220813 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.70    140.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    161.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.3  44.4  52.9  57.0  65.4  58.5  55.9  57.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.0  69.3  44.7  22.6  13.3  13.7  15.1  16.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0 115.0 174.0  58.0 119.0 100.0  77.0  24.0  F  F VF  N  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  64.0  67.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   0.0   6.0 -16.0  -8.0 -56.0 -75.0 -71.0  U  N  N VF  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.90

 WP092022 220813 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.70    140.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.