Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092022 220813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.20    142.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    176.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.8  48.5  48.8  54.3  63.0  45.6  40.1  37.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.4  60.7  35.1  21.1  12.6  14.8  16.1  16.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  80.0  75.0  39.0  49.0  82.0  94.0  36.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  51.0  46.0  48.0  U  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0  16.0  -2.0  -5.0 -39.0 -22.0 -25.0  N  N  U  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.04

 WP092022 220813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.20    142.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.