Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092022 220814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.20    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    172.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.2  58.6  61.1  65.0  59.2  48.3  42.2  37.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.7  18.2   9.7   8.1   9.1  11.8  10.0  12.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0  67.0   2.0  93.0 127.0 131.0 107.0  40.0  F  N  U  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0  -2.0 -23.0  -7.0 -52.0-148.0-102.0   8.0 VF  N VF  F VF VF VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 17.42

 WP092022 220814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.20    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.