Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092022 220814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.60    149.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    162.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.9  50.9  47.4  46.3  38.5  48.2  56.6  65.2 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          4.4   3.4   3.7   5.1   6.7   6.7   6.2   5.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  84.0 114.0  88.0  71.0  60.0  50.0  15.0  U  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -17.0 -50.0 -55.0 -83.0 -29.0  -3.0   3.0  F VF VF VF VF VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 12.96

 WP092022 220814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.60    149.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.