Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102022 220823 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 122.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.7 33.5 36.6 46.1 49.3 54.7 51.5 51.1 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 58.0 81.0 82.0 61.0 47.0 0.0 0.0 U N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 31.7 73.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 64.3 71.2 VU U N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 104.0 86.0 39.0 36.0 40.0 39.0 20.0 23.0 F F N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 78.0 75.0 80.0 81.0 83.0 89.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -11.0 -7.0 -6.0 -12.0 -12.0 -7.0 -2.0 VF F F F F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.7% 3.8% 7.8% 25kt / 24h 16.5% 15.3% 15.9% 30kt / 24h 10.4% 7.5% 9.0% 35kt / 24h 7.3% 7.5% 7.4% 40kt / 24h 4.2% 7.0% 5.6% 45kt / 36h 3.6% 8.7% 6.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.5% 1.3% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.56 WP102022 220823 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 122.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.7 33.5 36.6 46.1 49.3 54.7 51.5 51.1 N F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 78.0 75.0 80.0 81.0 83.0 89.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -11.0 -7.0 -6.0 -12.0 -12.0 -7.0 -2.0 VU U U U U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%