Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102022 220823 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 121.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 38.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.9 41.7 49.5 52.8 51.0 53.9 49.8 52.2 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 55.0 85.0 81.0 72.0 58.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 76.2 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 89.4 35.7 19.1 U N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 70.0 55.0 53.0 30.0 15.0 16.0 1.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 68.0 70.0 69.0 72.0 75.0 76.0 F N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -5.0 -7.0 -6.0 -14.0 -9.0 -12.0 -5.0 N F F F VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 1.8% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.24 WP102022 220823 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 121.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.9 41.7 49.5 52.8 51.0 53.9 49.8 52.2 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 68.0 70.0 69.0 72.0 75.0 76.0 U N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -5.0 -7.0 -6.0 -14.0 -9.0 -12.0 -5.0 N U U U VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2%