Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102022 220823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  43.7  50.3  51.0  55.5  50.1  52.3  49.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  78.0  65.0  56.0  39.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  56.7  37.8  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  23.0  28.0  31.0  41.0  18.0  14.0   5.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  77.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0   0.0  -7.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0 -11.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP102022 220823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  43.7  50.3  51.0  55.5  50.1  52.3  49.7  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  77.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0   0.0  -7.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0 -11.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%