Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102022 220824 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 113.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 49.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.4 56.5 49.8 52.3 56.2 55.7 55.7 55.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 32.0 49.0 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U N U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 47.9 40.9 40.9 40.9 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 23.0 11.0 29.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 73.0 76.0 80.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 N N N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -10.0 -9.0 -15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VF F F VF N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.74 WP102022 220824 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 113.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.4 56.5 49.8 52.3 56.2 55.7 55.7 55.7 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 73.0 76.0 80.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -10.0 -9.0 -15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VU U U VU N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 20.0% 1.2% 10.6%