Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112022 220823 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.60 149.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 30.7 31.3 34.7 41.4 56.6 55.6 69.1 N U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 30.0 30.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 75.1 56.6 13.8 -17.3 -31.8 -37.2 N N U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 44.0 25.0 14.0 43.0 36.0 16.0 -19.0 U N U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 60.0 56.0 52.0 48.0 42.0 40.0 40.0 U N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -13.0 2.0 12.0 -37.0-105.0-136.0 -79.0 N VF N U VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 55.4% 19.2% 37.3% 25kt / 24h 26.0% 22.0% 24.0% 30kt / 24h 26.0% 15.9% 20.9% 35kt / 24h 26.0% 15.9% 20.9% 40kt / 24h 15.7% 15.9% 15.8% 45kt / 36h 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.38 WP112022 220823 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.60 149.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 30.7 31.3 34.7 41.4 56.6 55.6 69.1 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 60.0 56.0 52.0 48.0 42.0 40.0 40.0 F N F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -13.0 2.0 12.0 -37.0-105.0-136.0 -79.0 N VU N F VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3%