Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112022 220823 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.00 148.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.7 28.9 29.0 32.5 48.0 52.8 61.9 72.7 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 18.0 26.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.3 60.7 44.8 18.0 -10.8 -40.1 -45.0 -47.5 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 12.0 33.0 24.0 71.0 27.0 4.0 -16.0 U U N U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 53.0 48.0 38.0 42.0 45.0 43.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 2.0 10.0 61.0 -46.0-108.0-195.0-100.0 F N U VU VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 38.8% 10.5% 24.7% 25kt / 24h 9.3% 6.6% 7.9% 30kt / 24h 9.3% 3.6% 6.5% 35kt / 24h 9.3% 3.6% 6.5% 40kt / 24h 4.5% 3.6% 4.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.44 WP112022 220823 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.00 148.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.