Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112022 220824 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.10 148.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.1 32.4 30.5 31.8 49.0 46.5 58.5 78.5 N U N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 57.9 43.5 15.8 6.7 -26.0 -47.7 -51.2 -52.7 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 35.0 32.0 55.0 84.0 33.0 -11.0 -28.0 U N N N N N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 53.0 50.0 45.0 41.0 40.0 40.0 42.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 28.0 13.0 -8.0 -49.0 -90.0 -82.0 N N VU U F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 17.5% 3.4% 10.4% 25kt / 24h 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 1.5% 0.7% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.76 WP112022 220824 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.10 148.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.