Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112022 220824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.10    150.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  39.2  40.5  45.4  43.9  57.6  73.6  71.9  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.7  10.0  -6.6 -23.5 -29.6 -32.4 -31.5 -29.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  68.0  52.0  28.0  -7.0 -50.0 -33.0  19.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  47.0  43.0  42.0  42.0  40.0  46.0  62.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -41.0 -48.0 -42.0-120.0-144.0  12.0 -46.0  F VF VF VF VF VF  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.42

 WP112022 220824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.10    150.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.