Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112022 220825 12UTC Storm Located at : 42.40 155.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.90 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.9 52.9 52.0 56.2 73.0 79.8 75.9 75.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 8.4 4.0 2.0 -0.6 -2.0 -1.5 0.8 0.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 25.0 3.0 -60.0 -40.0 9.0 37.0 37.0 U U U VU VU U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 40.0 48.0 63.0 63.0 VU VU VU VU VU U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 16.0 -70.0-147.0-212.0-103.0 -75.0 -75.0 VF U VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 16.12 WP112022 220825 12UTC Storm Located at : 42.40 155.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.