Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112022 220825 18UTC Storm Located at : 44.60 157.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 156.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.9 48.7 49.8 59.2 72.1 79.3 79.3 79.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 8.4 5.5 4.4 2.1 2.9 4.2 4.2 4.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 -6.0 -44.0 -34.0 -36.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 44.0 43.0 41.0 37.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 -48.0 -59.0 -94.0 -99.0 -74.0 -74.0 -74.0 U VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 13.70 WP112022 220825 18UTC Storm Located at : 44.60 157.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.