Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122022 220828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    149.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  22.3  26.2  28.5  31.5  27.2  31.3  27.9  F  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  50.0  47.0  46.0  49.0  42.0  45.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  39.0  12.0   8.0   6.0  10.0  -4.0  15.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  50.0  47.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0  -9.0  -2.0  -8.0  -1.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        6.7%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.0%       33.4%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%       18.6%       12.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%       17.6%       11.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       17.4%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       31.7%       18.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.1%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%       13.9%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        8.8%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       12.8%       16.5%       14.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.02

 WP122022 220828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    149.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  22.3  26.2  28.5  31.5  27.2  31.3  27.9  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  50.0  47.0  52.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0  -9.0  -2.0  -8.0  -1.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%