Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122022 220828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  21.8  19.5  17.0  24.8  25.5  35.4  26.8  F  N  N  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  46.0  54.0  57.0  46.0  54.0  56.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  -4.0  -2.0  -7.0 -14.0   1.0  -9.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -3.0  -7.0 -14.0  -7.0  -2.0  -6.0  F  F  N  F VF  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.2%        5.7%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       13.3%       32.6%       22.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       17.8%       14.6%
 35kt / 24h        8.3%       17.8%       13.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%       17.8%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h       12.7%       30.8%       21.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.5%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h       10.0%       14.1%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%        9.5%        7.5%
 65kt / 72h        9.0%       15.4%       12.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.22

 WP122022 220828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  21.8  19.5  17.0  24.8  25.5  35.4  26.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -3.0  -7.0 -14.0  -7.0  -2.0  -6.0  U  U  N  U VU  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%