Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122022 220828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  17.3  16.2  22.0  26.8  29.8  37.1  35.1  N  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  51.0  54.0  50.0  53.0  63.0  62.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0 -17.0 -16.0 -26.0 -22.0  11.0   7.0  47.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0 -14.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0   0.0  -5.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.2%       10.5%       11.3%
 25kt / 24h       18.1%       39.3%       28.7%
 30kt / 24h       16.9%       26.6%       21.8%
 35kt / 24h       13.9%       26.6%       20.3%
 40kt / 24h        7.7%       26.6%       17.2%
 45kt / 36h       15.1%       28.6%       21.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.8%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.3%       13.0%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        6.7%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%        9.0%        7.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.14

 WP122022 220828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  17.3  16.2  22.0  26.8  29.8  37.1  35.1  N  N  U  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0 -14.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0   0.0  -5.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%