Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122022 220829 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.30 145.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 85.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 68.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 22.1 27.5 26.8 26.5 32.9 20.7 30.2 N N N N N U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 51.0 54.0 52.0 47.0 56.0 58.0 68.0 72.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -21.0 -30.0 -7.0 2.0 -15.0 17.0 10.0 72.0 VU VU U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 60.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 63.0 65.0 65.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -7.0 -7.0 -13.0 -11.0 -5.0 -8.0 6.0 F F F VF F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 17.5% 19.8% 18.6% 25kt / 24h 26.2% 49.5% 37.9% 30kt / 24h 22.1% 41.6% 31.9% 35kt / 24h 22.1% 41.6% 31.9% 40kt / 24h 7.9% 39.2% 23.5% 45kt / 36h 15.3% 37.2% 26.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 20.0% 10.0% 55kt / 48h 7.9% 16.6% 12.2% 70kt / 48h 1.2% 8.0% 4.6% 65kt / 72h 6.4% 15.0% 10.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.18 WP122022 220829 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.30 145.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 22.1 27.5 26.8 26.5 32.9 20.7 30.2 N N N N N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 60.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 63.0 65.0 65.0 F N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -7.0 -7.0 -13.0 -11.0 -5.0 -8.0 6.0 U U U VU U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%